Abstract
A study of five EPRA (European Public Real Estate Association) reporting indicators (EPRA cost ratio, EPRA net initial yield, EPRA topped-up net initial yield, EPRA vacancy ratio, EPRA leverage ratio), one proprietary indicator, marketimplied yield, calculated on the basis of an EPRA net asset value measure (EPRA net reinstatement value), and two factor indicators, momentum and mean reversion, is conducted to evaluate their utility in predicting individual REIT outperformance relative to the selected benchmark (iShares STOXX Europe 600 Real Estate UCITS ETF). AUTHOR found that over the 2018-2022 period, the momentum factor, low EPRA leverage ratio REITs, and REITs with a low topped-up EPRA net initial yield produced the highest alpha. The lowest alpha was delivered by selecting REITs based on a low EPRA vacancy ratio, a high market-implied net initial yield, and high leverage. Author further found the EPRA cost ratio to be less useful in selecting REITs to achieve alpha over the ETF benchmark, with inefficient REITs with a high EPRA cost ratio consistently outperforming highly efficient REITs with a low EPRA cost ratio (with the underlying driving factor being the nature of the real estate the REITs securitize). Finally, author conducted a correlation analysis between the evolution of EPRA reporting indicators and REITs’ outperformance relative to the ETF benchmark. Correlation analysis of EPRA indicators and ETF outperformance was less conclusive, with a wide range of results among the nine REITs in my sample.
Keywords: Alpha, Benchmark, EPRA, Indicator, Outperformance, REIT.